Is the European Union Becoming a Geopolitical Power?

Introduction

The European Union, traditionally perceived as an economic giant, forever fragmented by opinions from across the political spectrum of the left, centrist and right, looks like a new candidate for superpower status. Global instability caused by the US shift to the right with subsequent trade tariffs, the impasse in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, as well as China's desire to develop its influence on developing countries in the Global South, are forcing the EU to shift its agenda from an economic integration project to one of the leaders in ensuring security. This situation has sparked a debate within the European Union itself, whether to adhere to traditional methods of economic and regulatory pressure, or adopt the new doctrine of the von der Leyen “Geopolitical commission”?

Geopolitical Power and the EU’s Traditional Role

The superpower, according to the Cambridge Dictionary, is - a country that has enough economic or political strength to influence events in many other countries. As mentioned earlier, the European Union has traditionally been perceived and positioned itself as a unique association whose identity is based on common principles. Therefore, the EU has long operated on the concept of Europe's normative power. Unlike traditional superpowers such as the United States and China, which rely on military or purely economic power, the EU influences the world through the dissemination of its values and legal norms.

Limitations and Structural Constraints

The European Union is also extremely limited in its foreign policy - CFSP, due to the principle of unanimity, due to which, in order to take an action towards a foreign country, there must be a unanimous consensus among member states, which sometimes makes it difficult to clearly express the EU's position on a specific issue, for example, Hungary's veto against the 20th package of sanctions against Russia. In recent years, there has been a steady "right shift" in the European Union — an increase in the popularity of right-wing and far-right parties, which is confirmed by the election results and a change in political rhetoric in key countries. The reasons for this phenomenon are the migration crisis, economic difficulties and bureaucratic processes. Right-wing sentiments have already become mainstream in some countries, such as Italy, Slovakia, Hungary, and they are also growing every year in Germany, France, and the Netherlands. The growth of right-wing sentiments strengthens national sovereignty to the detriment of pan-European unity, which is why the EU is increasingly faced with blocking decisions and internal disputes over migration, finance, ecology, and foreign policy.

At the same time, the European Union relies heavily on the US military for security. The United States spends more than $980 billion on the defense industry, which accounts for more than 60% of the total NATO budget. Moreover, about 85,000 US troops are stationed at NATO bases in Europe. In addition, the European Union is under the American "nuclear umbrella", hoping for its nuclear power, since without the United States, only France and Great Britain have nuclear weapons. This balance of power does not add points to the European Union on its way to Superpower status, which is closely related to its "traditional role."

Strategic Ambitions: The EU’s Global Vision

In 2026, the concept of strategic autonomy of the European Union is becoming more relevant than ever. It consists in a set of solutions aimed at reducing the EU's dependence on the influence of superpowers (the United States and China). First of all, the EU is making every effort to build up military power to reduce the effectiveness of imposing US conditions, as well as to increase the effectiveness of military assistance to Ukraine. Thus, in 2025, the total defense spending of the EU countries reached a historic maximum of 381 billion euros (an increase of 11% over the year and 62.8% compared to 2020). Spending is also expected to reach about 2.1% of EU GDP by 2026. These measures will allow the European Union to act outside the US agenda on absolutely all issues, as well as increase the continent's defense capability.

At the same time as increasing the defense budget, the European Union is applying a set of solutions called the Indo-Pacific Strategy, which is a geopolitical concept aimed at strengthening cooperation and security in the region, which covers the area from the east coast of Africa to the Pacific island states. The EU's Indo-Pacific Strategy by 2026 is a way to gain a foothold in the world's most important economic region, through which 40% of European imports pass. In order not to depend on the confrontation between the United States and China, Europe is actively investing billions of euros in the infrastructure of Vietnam and the Philippines through the Global Gateway program, providing access to chips and lithium. At the same time, the EU is increasing maritime patrols to protect trade routes and is entering into technological alliances with Japan and India. In fact, this is an attempt by Brussels to protect its interests not only through diplomacy, but also through a real presence in the field of security and high technology.

Conclusion

The future of the European Union in our time depends on many factors, such as the deep integration of the participating countries, as well as well-coordinated cooperation on the issue of Europe's defense capability. External pressure from global powers only accelerates the transition of the European Union from an economic union influenced by the concept of regulatory force to a Superpower using conventional methods of influencing. Nevertheless, at the moment, debates are raging around the world and in Brussels itself, will the European Union be able to overcome internal disunity and become a new competitor to the United States and China on the world stage?

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