Four Years in Belgium: The Approaching End of Temporary Protection for Ukrainians

The day opened with an art exhibition—an important reminder that even in times of crisis, creativity can build bridges. Speakers emphasized that such initiatives help Europeans see Ukrainians not only as a nation affected by war, but also as a people capable of contributing meaningfully to European culture. Beneath this cultural dimension, however, lies a pressing legal reality: the “temporary” protection granted in 2022 is approaching its end.

The Temporary Protection Directive

In 2022, the EU took the unprecedented step of activating the Temporary Protection Directive (TPD). Unlike traditional asylum procedures—which often involve lengthy individual assessments, restricted mobility, and delayed access to employment—the TPD introduced immediate, collective protection.

This mechanism granted millions of displaced individuals rapid access to healthcare, education, and the labor market, bypassing many of the usual administrative barriers. The distinction between individual asylum claims and collective protection is legally significant. While asylum systems rely on case-by-case evaluations, the TPD is designed for situations involving mass displacement.

Beyond legal differences, the directive has had major social and economic implications. By enabling quick access to jobs and services, it has allowed displaced people to integrate faster and contribute economically to host countries.

However, the TPD does not provide a pathway to permanent residency or citizenship. Its temporary nature creates ongoing uncertainty about the long-term legal status of its beneficiaries. This uncertainty is compounded by the absence of clear transition mechanisms from temporary protection to more stable residency options.

Currently, around 4.38 million non-EU citizens are protected under the TPD across Member States, with approximately 95,000 residing in Belgium as of January 31, 2026. While the directive successfully bypassed the delays of the asylum system, it was never intended as a permanent solution. After four years of continuous application, EU authorities have indicated that spring 2027 may mark its definitive end.

A Looming Policy Gap

The panel discussion focused on growing “fatigue” among host countries and the urgent need for long-term residency solutions. Speakers warned that what was meant to be temporary protection has evolved into a prolonged uncertainty that hinders integration and creates significant psychological strain for families who have spent years building their lives in Belgium.

According to Pavlo Koshka, the perception that Ukrainians are “privileged” refugees overlooks the fragile nature of their legal situation. While the TPD may appear generous, its lack of permanence makes it inherently unstable. As he noted, the protection offered can feel more like an illusion than a guarantee.

Key Challenges Identified

1. The “January Problem” and Policy Delays

Although a unified EU-wide approach would be ideal to avoid fragmented national policies, speakers suggested that another coordinated extension is unlikely. Responsibility is increasingly shifting to individual governments.

Pieter Van Roeyen warned of the so-called “January Problem”—the tendency of policymakers to delay decisions until a crisis is imminent. Waiting until early 2027 to establish a new legal framework could create serious disruptions.

For many families, uncertainty already affects major life decisions, including education planning and long-term employment. Without timely action, the transition away from the TPD risks becoming chaotic rather than structured.

2. Barriers to Changing Legal Status

Transitioning from temporary protection to other residence permits remains extremely difficult:

• Work permits (Single Permits): Often require high salary thresholds (around €50,000 in Flanders and higher in Wallonia) or employment in shortage occupations, excluding many qualified individuals.

• Recognition of qualifications: Many Ukrainian diplomas are not easily recognized, forcing skilled professionals into lower-skilled jobs.

• Student visas: These remain temporary and do not provide long-term stability.

• Asylum procedures: Proving individual risk remains legally complex, even during active conflict, making this pathway uncertain.

A large-scale shift toward asylum applications could overwhelm national systems, potentially leading to administrative bottlenecks and further strain on already limited reception capacities.

3. The Human Impact of “Refugee Fatigue”

Bertrand Waucquez highlighted growing “refugee fatigue” in Western Europe as attention shifts to other global crises. He stressed that Ukrainians, who are often seen as contributing to broader European security, deserve long-term stability in return.

What Comes Next?

As the 2027 deadline approaches, the message from policymakers is increasingly clear: temporary solutions must give way to sustainable, long-term strategies. Without a clear legal pathway to permanent residency or more accessible employment options, Belgium could face both humanitarian and labor market challenges.

Importantly, speakers emphasized that Ukrainians should not rely solely on government decisions. A centralized solution may not address individual circumstances. Instead, continued integration—through employment, education, and legal awareness—remains essential.

Since governments cannot tailor solutions to every individual case, proactive self-advocacy is crucial. For many, taking initiative now may be the most effective way to secure long-term stability in the face of upcoming policy changes.