The Turning Point of Munich 2026:  Rise of new balance in Euro-Atlantic relations

The 62° edition Munich Security Conference - MSC, which took place in mid-February 2026, has been - exactly a year later the words pronounced by of US Vice President J. D. Vance - the setting of a very important speech given by German Chancellor Friederich Merz, that represents a turning point for Euro-Atlantic balance, both in terms of political ties, but more specifically, of Atlantic strategy onglobal security. Finally, deeper, on relationship within the newly formed partnership.

From a temporal perspective, we can place this event within a process that over the last two years has progressively distanced the two sides of the Atlantic. This means that the Atlantic Ocean has become wider, both due to the truly new and, in some respects, unpredictable initiatives of the new American presidency, and therefore a very significant, intense and even violent use of the "supremacy of force" as a real and broken point overcoming of the (at least,theoretical and ethical) "supremacy of law".

This represents a reduction in reliance on international law, which led to interventions in Venezuela and embarrassing statements regarding Denmark. On the other hand, it could be said that the position taken by some of the most important partners, particularly France and Germany, is finally demonstrating a European and pro-European spirit, distancing themselves from their “old” american ally.

Even in the United Kingdom, despite having already left the European Union following the U-turn, America's shift in position and its more American-oriented stance in international relations have somewhat shifted its attention more toward Europe. This is certainly also thanks to its commitment literally on the front lines of the Ukrainian conflict, has significantly loosened - or so it seems - the privileged relationship that for many years, at least six decades, has characterized the ironclad relationship between London and Washington.

After the 61st Munich Conference, marked by the US Vice President's frontal attack on the (former?) European allies who "had lost" (the conditional and quotation marks are truly obligatory in this case) their common values, a strong and unequivocal response came exactly one year later from the emerging leader of the European Union, German Chancellor Merz, who reiterated that the values of "Make America Great Again" are neither in practice nor in philosophy consistent with the spirit that characterizes the European Union and the so-called Western pillar of NATO.

And so Merz's speech clarified a perspective, a possible, indeed plausible, "scenario," which appears illuminating for at least six areas of interest, which we summarize below as a path of analysis and an interpretative framework for ongoing developments.

The most important statement, beyond the fact that a difference in vision between Europe and the United States was finally recognized, was that "Autocracies need subjects, while democracies need partners." It was thus reiterated that power politics - in reality for both democracies and autocracies - has more clearly replaced politics based on negotiations and diplomatic rules, or at least the two spheres have shifted in intensity.

Let me therefore outline for once, in six programmatic statements, which will naturally be developed in light of the actions of State-Actors, the current trend, or in other words the path, which, in the midst of the "Westphalian Return", isbeing revealed to our eyes, as academic and scholars of current International Relations.

First, it formally establishes that the "american peace" (AP) because of current European initiative as a reversal and reaction to MAGA philosophy, is over; thus, the structure of the Euro-Atlantic system is changing: The United States of America are no longer Europe's protector.

Second, Germany, from being an essentially economic power, is also becoming a security power for Europe. Berlin not only supports the alliance but becomes its eastern pillar. Therefore, if NATO has an eastern pillar, it means that the United States are its western one.

Third, and related to this second point, Europe will play an autonomous and leading role in its own deterrence too (Ukraine crisis, etc.) We are referring to (about 290) French nuclear warheads, which at the moment can be used for strictly national defense, not only in Europe, given that France has Overseas Territories in all Continents. Nevertheless, negotiations could be developed for their more extensive use. Even, with prevalence, of course to defensive purposes and, naturally, to deter the United Kingdom's nuclear capabilities.

Fourth, therefore, NATO is going to develop a "Redistribution of Responsibility" (RR), underscoring the United States' tendency to focus on the Pacific as the Western pillar, while NATO's Eastern one - Germany, France, and UK - with their nuclear-armed or biggest Armies, along with key partners in EU and Associated Countries, should focus on the security of Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean and their surroundings. The Middle East, however, would remain an area of "shared responsibility" (SR) between the two pillars of NATO.

Fifth, geoeconomics becomes deterrent. But this time, deterrence is no longer just nuclear, but also energy and power chain management.

Sixth, Europe will not follow the American culture war because European leadership will not be based on identity, but rather on interests. This is, undoubtedly, an ideological divide and the most significant and factual gap between the two areas.

In conclusion, we can assume that Europe has moved, finally, from adolescence to maturity. This concept of “Growth & Adulthood of Europe” is forcefully expressed in Merz's speech, which expressly quotes the autonomy of Europe from America. This autonomy, however, does not mean that Europe will seek another, maybe larger entity on which to depend - obviously, the immediate reference is toChina - but it means that, even through its own rearmament, Europe will become an autonomous entity within (not out of) the Atlantic Treaty/Consensus.

If this Coordinated Bilateral Approach (CBA) will develop and it’ll be loyal, European Continent will be involved atlooking to the East, while the United States should look primarily to the (south) West of the alliance. Certainly, this movement will represent a non-trivial step forward towards stability, autonomy and self-determination, as well as towards a global - hopefully still peaceful - balance.