50 Days of Survival: Stop or Go? The ultimatum putting Belgium under pressure

By Kadir Duran Bruxelles Korner, Saturday 8 November 2025

Belgium’s “Arizona” coalition is stalling, the federal budget is drifting, and Prime Minister Bart De Wever has given himself 50 days not one more to broker a deal before Christmas. If he fails, he will resign.

Behind the scenes, everyone understands the real consequence: provisional twelfths on 1 January, delayed reforms, and a country moving in slow motion.

What falls through (at least until March)

• No pension bonus-malus

• No reform of night work

• No capital gains tax (law not ready → impossible to start on 1 Jan)

Bottom line: Belgium slides into provisional twelfths.
Real implementation of reforms at best begins on 1 April (payroll/logistics constraints).

Estimated cost: €1.2–1.7 billion in lost revenue by end-March.

On the capital gains tax, a political deal exists (10% tax, €10,000 exemption), but banks, tax authorities and legal services are nowhere near operational readiness.
No law = no start.

A tense political moment: hardened positions

• De Wever raises the stakes: “By Christmas or the end.”

• Conner Rousseau denounces the “humiliations” inflicted on the PM and insists on a stronger contribution from high earners.

• Alexia Bertrand criticises a budget process that is “too late and too unstructured.”

But the real showdown is elsewhere: MR vs N-VA.

Libéral line: “No new taxes.”
Nationalist line: “Choices must be made now.”

The ultimatum turns an internal standoff into a political gamble.

Why provisional twelfths are a very bad signal

The National Bank of Belgium is clear:

• debt trajectory is deteriorating

• interest charges are exploding

• delays mechanically worsen the deficit

Provisional twelfths merely “pause” spending.
They fix nothing.

Direct impact on workers, savers, businesses

• Pay packets: no adjustment via the tax-free allowance in January → postponed to 1 April

• Savings: total uncertainty until the capital gains law is adopted

• Labour market: night-work reform and activation of long-term sick postponed

Two scenarios before Christmas

1) “Go” compromise

• Emergency vote end-December

• Realistic implementation: 1 April

• Capital gains tax: final text + partial rollout in 2026

2) “Stop” rupture

• PM resigns

• Provisional twelfths extended

• Reforms frozen

• Bad signal to financial markets

Bouchez, alone against all? The GLB moment

One name dominates the backstage narrative: Georges-Louis Bouchez.

Arizona partners first discreetly, then openly point to him as the main source of the deadlock.

Even Maxime Prévot, usually measured, eventually said:

“The MR’s stance is one of the causes of this difficulty.”

Bouchez’s line is crystal clear:

“Less spending, no new taxes.”

And above all: he refuses to bend to De Wever.

A liberal strategist sums it up:

“De Wever isn’t used to facing someone who won’t fold.
Bouchez keeps pushing.”

But the gamble has a cost

• Popularity: rejecting a VAT hike + indexation pause

• Risk: being branded the saboteur of the government

Meanwhile the budget machinery is seizing up:

• €1.3–1.6 billion in delayed revenue

• early-retirement and labour reforms postponed

• capital gains tax stuck in limbo

• reforms paralysed

One year lost.
One billion evaporated.
One country idling.

Bruxelles Korner Editorial Line

Belgium cannot spend three months in “standby mode” and expect a fiscal miracle in spring.

Provisional twelfths prevent overspending — they do not repair anything.

This ultimatum forces each party to answer a simple question:
What are you truly willing to reform, and which tax are you willing to defend in front of citizens?

Main sources:
Reuters (50-day ultimatum), 7sur7/HLN (Rousseau), RTL Info (loss estimates), NBB (debt trajectory), Belfius/FEB/Febelfin (capital gains parameters).