Redrawing the Gulf: Energy New Routes Beyond Hormuz

The awaiting war has been started between Iran and the US-Israel. The killing of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei brought a new aggressive defensive approach by the country against offensive attacks by Israel and the US. However, the fear of closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian authorities finally transformed into reality as Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. The regional conflagration is imminent if both parties do not prioritize a peaceful diplomatic approach.

We cannot deny that the US has hit Iran during the ongoing talks in Oman between both countries. And even President Donald Trump is not hesitant to stop the war but prolong it, as the US administration stated that we can consider the option of grounding troops in Iran. which is really a violation of a sovereign country, and again, the US is repeating its actions of the Iraq War (2003) and the invasion of Afghanistan, both of which were proven fatal.

However, I have previously written on why killing Ayatollah Khomeini won't complete the ambition of the Trump administration for regime change, in which I quoted the reasons behind this. But today I want to shed light on the most important and critical issue the world is witnessing: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the disruption of global supply chains, global oil shockwaves, inflation, and overall economic shocks.

What are the new options for Gulf countries to export their oil and gas to their consumer countries to avoid global supply chains and overall economic shocks?

First, we have to understand the energy geopolitics of the Gulf. Some countries have prepared for emergency exits, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, but others are trapped in the geopolitical war and unable to expand their energy supply routes. The most affected would be Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar.

Kuwait depends 100% on the Strait of Hormuz, similar to Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain, because these countries have not yet built alternative pipelines to adopt new ports and routes for the supply of their oil and gas. Similarly, Saudi Arabia is a best-prepared nation invested in the East-West Pipeline, also known as Petroline. This can pump 7 million barrels per day across the peninsula to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. This is what the government of Pakistan suggested to the kingdom: exporting oil from an alternative route of the Red Sea to avoid inflation, disruption, and economic shocks.

Similarly, the UAE has also built a pipeline known as the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, which gives the country direct access to the Gulf of Oman. But the rest of the Gulf countries, especially Qatar, face challenges in the wake of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as is evident that the authority has halted contracts temporarily. This would affect the economy of Europe and the United Kingdom, as they are major importers ofLNG from Qatar.

So how can we avoid the global shockwaves while mapping new routes of energy supply? The UAE Fujairah pipeline is a good example of bypassing routes from Harmuz that others can also learn from.

It is vital to leverage other regional hubs such as Egypt's SUMED pipeline, which connects the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, to gain new importance in the evolving energy dynamics of the region. It can receive oil from Gulf countries and ship it directly to European markets.A Gulf energy ring main can be created, a circular pipeline network connecting Gulf countries such as Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman. All countries work together in the supply of oil and gas from a single route into a shared system; if any disruption happens, the flow should be rerouted through another member’s network.

As we can see in the recent crisis, countries are also investing in storage facilities in stable regions abroad. For example, Kuwait has stored millions of barrels of oil in South Korea. This keeps suppliers to key markets away from the danger zone. Moving to renewable energy resources is not only good for our environment but also plays an important role in the overall energy security of countries.

The other alternative option could be made in which Qatar invests in offshore liquefaction facilities in Omani or Yemeni waters and allows its gas to be loaded onto ships without entering the strait. Vessels will be stationed in the Arabian Sea, Red Sea, and Mediterranean Sea for emergency supplies, and other countries can lease storage from the secure Dubai Port, Fujairah, and Saudi Arabia Port.

Therefore, the undefined offensive attacks by Israel and the USA in Iran are unjustified, and the killing of innocent children in schools is clearly the violation of international law. The country should understand that forced regime change only brings chaos, as we see in other Arab countries; thus, Iran is not an exceptional case where the threats and attacks only bring regional conflagration and exacerbate the lives of people globally.

Thus,the question is important to ask: Shall we emerge from this crisis with temporary solutions or finally redraw the energy map? The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has given us warnings after warnings; this is a time to act and build new routes to avoid global shockwaves. The question emerges: Have we the courage to build them?